The Peak

Assessing the impending free agent Canucks

By Justin Isaacs

When Canucks GM Mike Gillis first took the job in 2008, he was immediately and unjustly met with hostility in this town; partially because the Dave Nonis firing was an event that Desmond Hume from Lost could not have predicted, and partially because he was an unproven NHL GM.

After his first season, however, there was no doubting Gillis’s ability as his team exceeded expectations and made it to the second round of the playoffs. His first offseason was equally successful, as he is a skilled negotiator. His skill will be tested yet again this year as three key players will become free agents come July 1: Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond, and Willie Mitchell.

Here is what Gillis has done so far:

He signed Burrows for what now can only be considered a fire sale price; $2 million over four years is a home run. Even more impressive, however, was the signing of the Sedin twins.

Negotiations were dragged out into the 11th hour in a calculated gamble by Gillis to get the twins at a bargain price and it paid off. Gillis signed the twins at $6.1 million each for five years while Leafs GM Brian Burke was still 40,000 feet over the Atlantic en route to Sweden.

The twins and Burrows are a combined $14.2 million cap hit and have produced 178 points between them, and counting. This line is more underpaid then a Vietnamese sweat shop, which is just how Gillis likes it. Next, Gillis got Luongo wrapped up for 12 years at a $5.33 million cap hit.

Here is what Gillis should do:

Ryan Kesler has emerged as a legitimate two-way centre on this team. He is responsible in his own end and can back that up with 48 points in 54 games so far this season. This Selke nominee is currently making $1.75 million and will no doubt require a significant raise. Despite how much I love Kesler’s game, he is not worth $5 million a season. He is a restricted free agent and could attract an offer sheet if negotiations go past July 1. But an NHL GM would be foolish to offer over $5 million to Kesler; if the offer-sheet is under $5 million, the Canucks should bite their tongue and match.

Arbitration is another possibility, the outcome of which is unpredictable. All of the above considered, Gillis should stay below $4.5 million and sell Kesler on the hometown discount he said he was going to take a year ago, go to arbitration if necessary, and match any offer-sheet under $5 million.

Mason Raymond has been the second biggest surprise this season next to the supremacy of the Sedin line. He started well last season, even showed signs of greatness, but then had a Chernobyl-like meltdown and never recovered in the latter half.

This season, however, he has already matched his career goal totals and shows no sign of letting up. Mason Raymond is a good young asset and is a crucial component to the second line. His signing is a must. Gillis should offer Raymond $2.5 million, which is perfectly adequate for a player of his stature.

Unlike Kesler and Raymond, Willie Mitchell is an unrestricted free agent after July 1, which means once that date passes, all bets are off. This season, he has played very well.

If Mitchell wants a raise, as most players do when their contract expires, then Gillis will unfortunately have to pass. If he can get him at $3.5 million or better yet, less, it would be a good deal for both sides. All that being said, Willie will most likely want a raise and Gillis has plenty of depth on the blue line for next season.

Kesler’s and Raymond’s raises trump Mitchell’s, and in the salary cap era, there is only so much cap space to go around. Sadly, don’t expect Willie to be back next season.

Gillis has been nothing less then stellar, signing players like Burrows, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and Luongo to discount contracts. Expect him to be stellar once more in the upcoming off-season. Also, expect to see Kesler and Raymond back with considerable, but not unreasonable raises. Willie on the other hand, will only be back if he wants to be, but I predict he will follow the money as most players tend to do.